RACE 3 SELECTIONS (4-12-5-8): I think #4 FULSOME (4-1) is going to win this race for powerhouse trainer Brad Cox. This one ran real good in the debut, running 2nd losing to a winner that was very close to a slow pace at Churchill. This one has not missed a beat working in the morning and comes in with a bullet on 12/12, best of 43 on the day. Sire Into Mischief is 14% in turf routes and the dam Flourish was 2 for 9 with 88k made. Was also 2nd in her only start at today’s distance on turf getting beat a nose in her 3rd start. According to Formulator, the last five years Cox is 12 for 33 (36%, $3.33 ROI) with 2yo in turf routes making their second start in MSW races. He is 2 for 4 ($5.15 ROI) with this stat at Fairgrounds. All systems go, but not sure what type of value we will get today. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Win bet on #4 FULSOME and an exacta key box 4/3,5,8,12,13…PICK THREE PLAY: 4/2/3,5,6.
RACE 8 SELECTIONS (10-2-3-12,5): A really nice MSW event here and I like a bomb that is #10 REMINISCENT (20-1) for trainer Larry Jones. This one took a good amount of money in the debut at Keeneland and really did not do much running in that race to be 6th. Nobody was beating the winner that day who won by 7, but this one should improve second out being by Nyquist who gets 21% 2yo winners according to DRF sire stats. According to Formulator, the last five years trainer Larry Jones is 6 for 26 (23%) with 2yo in dirt sprints making their second start in MSW races. Five straight 5 furlong drills coming into this and expect improvement from this one at a big price. #2 SISTER LUCK (6-1) was purchased for 375k so you know they think this one has some talent being by Shackleford who gets 11% first time starting 2yo winners. Some very good works, including a bullet, best of 78 on 12/11. According to Formulator, the last five years trainer Al Stall is 9 for 30 (30%) with 2yo in dirt sprints making their first career start, debuting with lasix at Fairgrounds. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Win/Place bet on #10 REMINISCENT and an exacta key box 10/2,3,5,12.
RACE 10 SELECTIONS (3-11-9-7,6): #3 TIWANAKU (5-1) will be my pick in here going out for trainer Steve Asmussen. This one ran a really good 2nd in the debut and now will stretch out to a route for his second start. Should be able to handle that being by sire Tapit who gets 17% dirt route winners. The dam Daisy Devine was 10 for 22 ($1 million) and won multiple times routing on both turf and dirt and ironically won the G2 Fairgrounds Oaks at today’s distance. Six straight 5 furlong drills and should be plenty fit for the stretchout here. Asmussen always better second time out and according to Formulator the last five years he is 3 for 5 (60%, $5.56 ROI) on dirt with 2yo going sprint to route at Fairgrounds. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Win/Place bet on #3 TIWANAKU and an exacta key box 3/1,6,7,9,11…LATE PICK FOUR PLAY: 3,9,11/1,3,8/1,2,4,8,9/5,6.
