Sunday September 2nd-
RACE 4- #1 DANCE CLUB (9-2, BEST BET) is my play of the day going second out for Shug McGaughey breaking from the rail. This one last all chance in the debut when getting checked at the break and broke about 5 lengths slow. Jose Ortiz could of just wrapped her up, but she made a very good closing move to run 3rd. As we all know Shug is not known to win first out and is much better with a start under his belt. The dam Storm Flag Flying (7-14, $1.9 million) was one of my favorites and this filly is bred to stretch out to 7 furlongs with Candy Ride as a sire. Good blowout work on 8/26 for this (3rd best of 41 on the day) and this one should move forward off of the debut. Really like this one alot in this spot.
SUGGESTED PLAYS: $30 win and place on #1 DANCE CLUB and a $5 exacta key box 1/4,7,9,10.
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Friday August 31st-
RACE 8- #11 QUICK QUICK QUICK (10-1, BEST BET) will be my top pick in here going out for trainer Ian Wilkes. You can cross aline through the last race racing over a sloppy track after not breaking the best-she looked like she wanted no part of the race and was also routing for the first time in her career. Will get back to a fast track today and will make her fourth start off the layoff. Ran 2nd two back with an 84 Beyer which fits with the field toppers. Has had success at Saratoga and has won at the 6 furlong distance breaking her maiden here last summer. According to Formulator the last five years Ian Wilkes is 10 for 42 (24%) on dirt going route to sprint off 31-60 days. I like the rider switch to Jose Ortiz who is more aggressive than Javier Castellano. Has not missed a beat on the workout tab and look for this one to run much better today breaking from the far outside post. #10 DANCING ALL NIGHT (2-1) will be tough in here for trainer Shug McGaughey who is having a great meet winning at a 23% clip. Goes third off the layoff after running paired up numbers. Add blinkers today, which should help this one finish much better.
SUGGESTED PLAYS: $20 win and place on #11 QUICK QUICK QUICK and a $5 exacta key box 11/2,3,7,10.
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Thursday August 30th-
RACE 2- #2 BAIL OUT (12-1) comes into this race fresh for trainer Shug McGaughey, who has had a very good meet winning at a 23% clip. Two back ran a good 2nd at Churchill and that effort earned him an 82 Beyer. Last time out might of regressed off of that effort and now comes in off 67 days. Working good for this coming back and according to Formulator the last five years McGaughey is 12 for 46 (26%) in turf routes off 61-180 days in MSW races. He is 1 for 3 with this move at Saratoga with the win coming with War Cabinet this year with today’s jockey Javier Castellano in the saddle. Has some inside speed breaking from the rail and expect a big run from him in here. It will be tough to beat the Chad Brown entry, considering the #1A STRATEGIC OUTLOOK (6-5) will make his second start after finishing 2nd in the debut. According to Formulator the last five years Chad Brown is 6 for 12 (50%, $3.55 ROI) in turf routes making their second start in MSW races at Saratoga.
SUGGESTED PLAYS: $10 win and place on #2 BAIL OUT and a $5 exacta box 1,2 and a $2 exacta key box 2/10,11 (TURF ONLY).
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Wednesday August 29th-
RACE 7- #2 Y’ALL WICKED (5-1, BEST BET) is my play of the day under Jose Ortiz. This one ships in from Finger Lakes and the shippers from there have been fire this year at the Spa. This one exits a career best 74 Beyer when tackling open company by 3 1/4 lengths. Has some early speed and breaking from the inside I expect Jose Ortiz to send. According to Formulator the last five years trainer Jeremiah Englehart is 7 for 28 (25%, $2.65 ROI) in dirt sprints top Beyer last out at Saratoga. Solid work on 8/22, 2nd best of 17 on the day and I expect this one to run very well in this spot.
SUGGESTED PLAYS: $20 win and place on #2 Y’ALL WICKED and a $5 exacta key box 2/3,4,6.
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Monday August 27th-
RACE 8- I have been waiting for #9 WESTERLAND (12-1) to run back and I love the switch to Manny Franco for this. Goes third off the layoff today and will also add blinkers for the first time. According to Formulator the last five years trainer Bill Mott is 2 for 8 (25%, $1.82 ROI) in turf routes third off the layoff adding blinkers for the first time. Took money in the U.S. debut and ran ok to be 3rd and followed that up with a 7th place finish breaking from the 9 hole, trying to close from last on a turf course that was very wet. Has come back with two good breezes and should run much better today in this spot having to not face the talented Raging Bull (3-4, 218k) today.
SUGGESTED PLAYS: $15 win and place on #9 WESTERLAND and a $3 exacta key box 9/1,2,5,8.
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Sunday August 26th-
RACE 2- Top pick #1 BLAHNIK (6-1) is supposed to be the best thing since sliced bread for trainer Todd Pletcher. This one lost all chance in the debut when breaking bad and finished dead last in the field of 10. You can cross a line through that start and now will try turf for the first time. This one took alot of money in that start and should offer much better value today. Three works since the last is a good sign, including two really strong breezes on 8/13 and 8/20. According to Formulator the last five years Todd Pletcher is 7 for 18 (39%, $3.71 ROI) with 2yo trying the turf for the first time going sprint to route making their second career start. Willing to give this one another shot in here.
SUGGESTED PLAYS: $20 win and place on #1 BLAHNIK and a $3 exacta key box 1/5,6,7,8.
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Saturday August 25th-Happy Travers Day!
RACE 3- #6 HOLLYWOOD STAR (8-1) will be my top pick in here under Irad Ortiz Jr. I like this one last time out and he ran very well coming off the brief freshening from March 25th. Was floated wide last out, but still managed to run on to be 3rd beaten about 4 1/4 lengths. Prior to that effort faced graded stakes company in his five starts after breaking the maiden at first asking. You know this one has the class and should be much fitter this time around for trainer Dale Romans. Bullet work on 8/19, best of 68 on the day indicates this one is ready to roll today. Stretches out a 1/2 furlong today to the distance where he ran 2nd in the G2 Saratoga Special last year.
SUGGESTED PLAYS: $10 win and place on #6 HOLLYWOOD STAR and a $3 exacta key box 6/1,4,8.
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Friday August 24th-
RACE 6- #7 DISCRETIONARY MARQ (8-1) is my top pick in here. I think this one is going to have a huge 4yo year. Came back in June at Belmont and ran 5th beaten 3 lengths and then followed that up with a career best 80 Beyer wiring the field by 2 1/4 lengths. Will go third off the layoff today and according to Formulator the last five years Clement is 8 for 17 (47%, 76% ITM, $3.41 ROI) in turf sprints third off the layoff running their top Beyer last out. Another Patricia Generazio turf runner. Has the ability and I think a repeat is well within reach today at a square price.
SUGGESTED PLAYS: $10 win and place on #7 DISCRETIONARY MARQ and a $3 exacta key box 7/1,3,6,9.
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Thursday August 23rd-
RACE 3- #1 HANDSOME CHEWY (8-1) will be my top pick in here dropping from MSW company into this 50k maiden claimer. If you look the last time this one ran against MSW and dropped into this level it produced a career best 47 Beyer and a 2nd place finish. Had the 10 hole last out and did no running, but did get a race over the track. Trainer Marcus Vitali has done well with limited starters at the meet and encouraging to see this one with a bullet work on 8/16. Definitely will offer value in this spot and should not be ignored. #3 CADILLAC FRANKIE (8-5) will likely go off the favorite in here. Bred well to win first time out by Two Step Salsa who gets 15% with 2yo FTS. Nice to see they paid 12 times the stud fee and the works are encouraging. According to Formulator the last five years trainer Rudy Rodriguez is 11 for 43 (26%, $3.00 ROI) with 2yo in dirt sprints with first time starters in maiden claiming races. He is 3 for 10 ($5.46 ROI) with this stat at Saratoga.
SUGGESTED PLAYS: $10 win and place on #1 HANDSOME CHEWY and a $3 exacta key box 1/2,3,6.
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Wednesday August 22nd-
RACE 9 SELECTIONS: 9-10-4-1,2 SELECTIONS (OFF TURF): 14-15-13-16
I am assuming with the rain expected to stop around noon today that they might leave this race on the turf and if they do it is a real good one loaded with talent. I will give a shot to #9 ROCKETRY (5-1) who ran extremely well last out closing into slow fractions while wide to be 3rd beaten a 1/2 length. The winner, Call Provision and the 2nd place finisher were both on or near the pace and simply had first run on Rocketry who was loaded in the stretch, but ultimately had too much to do. That effort produced a career best 99 Beyer. You cannot throw anything out from the Jimmy Jerkens barn as he is red hot this meet winning at a 28% clip and the last 30 days he is 5 for 15 (33%, $2.72 ROI). Won by 3 lengths three back when racing on a wet turf course. I love the works for this, with a bullet on 8/6, best of 19 on the day followed up by a 6 furlong work on 8/15. #10 CALL PROVISION (3-1) and #4 FOCUS GROUP (6-1) are sent out by Chad Brown and both are worth a long look in here and both are capable of winning this race. One to watch out for that is a huge price is #1 MR MAYBE (30-1) after running huge last out to be 2nd beaten a nose over a soft turf course. This was a wiseguy play last out taking alot of money and interesting to see Castellano hop aboard today.
SUGGESTED PLAYS: $20 win and place on #9 ROCKETRY and a $3 exacta key box 9/1,2,4,10 (TURF ONLY).
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Sunday August 19th-
RACE 2- I really like #7 TIMBER GHOST (6-1) in this spot. I have been waiting for this one to run back, as he has not been seen since March 4th at Gulfstream. You can cross a line through the debut effort as this one broke slow and really had no chance. Last time out faced a decent field that included Almithmaar (1-5, 82k) who looks to be a good one for Shadwell and Final Frontier who came back to break his maiden at Tampa Bay. Took strong money in both career starts and has worked very well for the return with the last two works being bullets. We lose Jose Ortiz #8 PENNYFORTHOUGHTS (5-1), but get the more than capable Junior Alvarado who has had a strong meet and year. According to Formulator the last five years Jerkens is 6 for 24 (25%, $3.02 ROI) in dirt sprints off 61-180 days.
SUGGESTED PLAYS: $20 win and place on #7 TIMBER GHOST and a $3 exacta key box 7/1,3,4,8.
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Saturday August 18th-
RACE 3- #7 NIGEL’S DESTINY (4-1) will be my top pick in here breaking from the far outside which is where you might want to be today. This one won for 40k two back then stepped up to face allowance foes last out and faded to 3rd. Faced Exulting that day who came back to win here on 8/4. Has alot of speed breaking and should be able to use that to his advantage. Cuts back to the 7 furlong distance, which was the distance of the win two back. 0 for 3 on a wet track, but has two 2nd place finishes. According to Formulator the last five years trainer Jeremiah Englehart is 7 for 21 (33%) on dirt going route to sprint allowance to claiming. Good work on 8/11 for this and this one looks very live in this spot. #6 DADDY D T (9-2) won at this level three back over a sloppy track then faced N2X level the last two and did little running. Speed and fade two back and had a little trouble in the last start. can make amends here under Manny Franco.
SUGGESTED PLAYS: $10 win and place on #7 NIGEL’S DESTINY and a $3 exacta key box 7/1,4,6.
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Friday August 17th-
RACE 7- #8 PALLADIAN BRIDGE (6-1) will be my play in here for trainer Ray Handal who has had a great meet winning at a 23% clip. This one ran lights out last time breaking from the far outside in the field of 10, set the pace through quick splits and managed to run 3rd beaten a length. That start was second off the 4 month layoff and now will go third off. According to Formulator the last five years Handal is 4 for 14 (29%) in dirt sprints third off the layoff. Has come back to work well with a good 4 furlong drill, 2nd best of 53 on the day on 7/30 and I like the fact that Handal has given this one some time off since that effort and work. Runs well on a wet track and gets a rider switch to meet leading jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. who has had success with Handal in the past…Note an interesting Formulator stat in here for #10 CILANTRO (4-1). According to Formulator the last five years Todd Pletcher is an amazing 13 for 20 (65%, 90% ITM, $3.25 ROI) in dirt sprints maiden win last out off more than 180 days. Not too often do you find percentages that great.
SUGGESTED PLAYS: $10 win and place on #8 PALLADIAN BRIDGE and a $3 exacta key box 8/1,4,5,9,10.
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Thursday August 16th-
RACE 1- Going to take a shot with #6 SOMEBODY (6-1) in this spot. Comes into this race fresh for trainer James Bond having not raced since May 13th. Also comes in as a first time gelding and will add blinkers for the first time so expect more speed from this one today especially with the rider switch to Ricardo Santana. Took money last out, but you can cross a line through that race as it was over a muddy track and he just ran 7th the entire way. Drops from MSW to maiden claimers and according to Formulator the last five years Bond is 4 for 18 (22%) on dirt going MSW to maiden claimers. This one offers great value in this spot and should run much better today.
SUGGESTED PLAYS: $20 win and place on #6 SOMEBODY and a $5 exacta key box 6/1,3,4.
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Wednesday August 15th-
#6 SOAR FROM THE SHADOWS (9-2, BEST BET) will be my top pick in here under Irad Ortiz Jr. and will try to get trainer Jimmy Toner off the schneid. Went off the favorite last out when trying 1 1/4 mile, but tired in the stretch. Could of regressed a little coming off two good efforts. This one has the most experience in the race and should benefit from the cut back to a 1 1/16th miles where she has a 2nd and a 3rd place finish, beaten a combined 1 3/4 lengths. Seems like Irad Ortiz had some choices in here, but opted to stay with this one. Has faced some good fields in the past and should make a very good account of herself in here.
SUGGESTED PLAYS: $20 win and place on #6 SOAR FROM SHADOWS and a $5 exacta key box 6/2,7,8,10 (TURF ONLY).
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Monday August 13th-
#9 CHANGEWILLDOYAGOOD (6-1) will be my pick in here stretching out from 7 furlongs to 1 1/16 mile. He has done well at this distance before (11-3-3-0) and the last two races he went so fast up front that he really did not have any chance in either of those races (45.40 and 44.56 to the halves). I love the fact that trainer Bruce Levine has given this one about two months off. The last time against this state bred 25k condition came on 12/1/17 where he was 2nd losing to With Exultation. You have to respect the work on 7/29, 2nd best of 129 on the day. I think this one will run a huge race under the aggressive Kendrick Carmouche.
SUGGESTED PLAYS: $20 win and place on #9 CHANGEWILLDOYAGOOD and a $3 exacta key box 9/4,6,8,10,11 (ONLY PLAYING IF RACE STAYS ON THE TURF).
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Sunday August 12th-The G2 Saratoga Special Stakes!
RACE 8- #1 MEADE (7-2) will be my top pick in this spot going out for trainer Todd Pletcher. This one broke his maiden quite impressively by 2.5 lengths. Looked very professional doing so coming home the final 1/8th in 12.70. Should have another alert beginning breaking from the rail and if you notice gets a 411 wet Tomlinson. The dam Defy Gravity won 5 of 25 for 171k in earnings and also had a first, second and third place finish from four starts over a wet track. #4 TIGHT TEN (5-2) won impressively first out going off the 2-1 favorite. 441 wet Tomlinson which is a field high. working well for the return. According to Formulator the last five years Asmussen is 3 for 21 (14%) with 2yo in dirt sprints maiden win last out going into a graded stakes race. #6 STAGE LEFT (6-1) won impressively first out at Keeneland for Wesley Ward going off the 2-5 favorite over a muddy track. Takes blinkers off for this and the dam Diva Delite was 8 for 17 lifetime with 300k in earnings and was 2 for 4 on a wet track. #3 SPINOFF (4-1) invades from Florida for Todd Pletcher after breaking his maiden over a good track on 6/23. Went off the 3-1 favorite that day and looked pretty good winning. The dam Zaftig was quite the runner winning 3 of 6 making 408k and took the G1 Acorn with a 113 Beyer. Working good for the comeback and would not be surprised if this one ran very well in here for top connections.
SUGGESTED PLAYS: $10 win and place on #1 MEADE and a $3 exacta key box 1/2,3,4,6.
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Saturday August 11th-
RACE 5- Going to take another Bill Mott runner in here on top with #1 ANOTHER (5-1). This one is coming off a maiden win on 7/8 at Belmont. The 3rd place finisher came back to win breaking his maiden here on 7/30 with an 85 Beyer. The 2nd place finisher that day was Strategic Outlook who is a 300k Medaglia d’Oro Chad Brown runner. I like the fact that this one has the rail today and should be able to sit a perfect trip under Junior Alvarado who has had an excellent meet winning at a 17% clip. Three solid works since the maiden breaking score and the drills are evenly spaced. According to Formulator the last five years trainer Bill Mott is 10 for 44 (23%, $2.83 ROI) in turf routes maiden win last out off 31-60 days. This stat improves at Saratoga where he is 2 for 7 ($7.75 ROI).
SUGGESTED PLAYS: $20 win and place on #1 ANOTHER and a $3 exacta key box 1/2,3,5,6,7.
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Friday August 10th-
RACE 6- #2 SICILIA MIKE (6-1, BEST BET) is an interesting horse in this spot. 6 of the last 7 tries have been against open company with the last two being good enough to win this event. Three back tried this state bred N1X condition and did no running, but that was on turf. Prior to that his last start against this condition resulted in a nose defeat with today’s pilot Dylan Davis aboard. That effort produced an 82 Beyer and running to any of those back numbers will destroy this field. Trainer Gary Sciacca is 0 for 12 at the meet, but is due for one. The work on 8/5 indicates this one is ready to go.
SUGGESTED PLAYS: $20 win and place on #2 SICILIA MIKE and a $5 exacta key box 2/3,5,6,8.
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Wednesday August 8th-
RACE 8- #5 NEW YORK HERO (7-2) will be my top selection over the two morning line favorites #1 J J’S DREAMING (6-5) and #2 SPEKE (8-5). This one will get a trainer switch to Jonathan Thomas and will take the blinkers off and go two sprints to the longest distance this one has run in his career. He is bred to enjoy this move being by Mineshaft (A.P. Indy) out of Party Silks (Touch Gold). According to DRF, all foals out of the dam Party Silks are 6 for 46 (13%, $1.5 million in earnings with a Top Beyer of 108). from 1 mile on dirt to a 1 3/16ths in distance. Trainer Jonathan Thomas is 4 for 12 (33%, $3.00 ROI) first time trainer switch to him the last year and has also done well with the sprint to route move the last year going 3 of 10 with a $3.36 ROI.
SUGGESTED PLAYS: $10 win and place on #5 NEW YORK HERO and a $5 exacta key box 5/1,2.
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Monday August 6th-
RACE 3- I really like #3 HOLLYWOOD STAR (6-1) in this spot for trainer Dale Romans who is having a great meet thus far winning 2 of 6 races. Comes in fresh having nor raced since March 25th when finishing 11th in the G3 Sunland Derby. Prior to that he has had four starts against stakes company including a 2nd place finish in both the G2 Saratoga Special and the G3 Iroquois. His only start sprinting 6 furlongs was a maiden breaking score first out at Churchill. There is alot of speed signed on here so his off the pace running style seems to fit here and we get Irad Ortiz Jr. who has one of the best clocks. According to Formulator the last five years Dale Romans is 7 for 31 (23%) on dirt going route to sprint off 61-180 days. Has the back class and experience over most of this field.
SUGGESTED PLAYS: $20 win and place on #3 HOLLYWOOD STAR and a $5 exacta key box 3/2,4,5.
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Sunday August 5th-
RACE 3- I really like #6 MIGHTY ZEALOUS (7-2) in this spot for trainer Gary Contessa who finally got off the duck at the current meet. If you look on 3/30 and 5/16 this one took this same condition producing Beyer speed figures of 92 and 89 respectively. Faced open company two back and had zero shot in that field going off 42-1 and then came back to run in the 100K John Morrissey where again he had no shot. Will wheel back 10 days from that start and nice to see that he gets a switch to 7 furlongs where he has a win and a 2nd place finish. If the track comes up wet he has shown the ability to handle it quite well.
SUGGESTED PLAYS: $10 win and place on #6 MIGHTY ZEALOUS and a $3 exacta key box 6/1,2,4.
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Saturday August 4th-Whitney Day!
RACE 2- I really like #11 SOCIAL PARANOIA (3-1) whether they leave it on the grass or take it off as I have been waiting for this one to run back. This would cap a Johnny V. double, this one for trainer Todd Pletcher. Ran 2nd in the debut on a good track, then followed that up with a 3rd pace finish last out going off the 7-5 favorite in the field of 8. Both of those starts were on dirt and now will attempt to get on the turf. Is by Street Boss who gets 16% first turf winners. Pletcher good with these types-according to Formulator the last five years Todd Pletcher is 11 for 30 (37%, $3.32 ROI) with 2yo going dirt to turf and sprint to route. He is 4 for 10 (40%, $3.97 ROI) with this stat at Saratoga.
SUGGESTED PLAYS: $20 win and place on #11 SOCIAL PARANOIA and a $5 exacta key box 11/2,3,6,7.
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Friday August 3rd-
RACE 2- #6 MISS KAPINATOR (7-2) will come off a long layoff having not been seen since September 23rd at Gulfstream. Speed and fade that day in the field of 10 and now will take the biggest drop in racing from MSW races into this 20K maiden claimer. Has speed which is key and is bred to run well on a wet track being by Munnings (Speightstown). Trainer Todd Pletcher tends to be good with these long layoff types dropping down. According to Formulator the last five years Pletcher is 5 for 8 (63%, $2.91 ROI) in dirt sprints going MSW to maiden claiming off more than 180 days. I like to see the blowout drill on this track on 7/27, 3rd best of 60 on the day. Pletcher owned and trained.
SUGGESTED PLAYS: $15 win and place on #6 MISS KAPINATOR and a $3 exacta key box 6/1,2,3,4.
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Wednesday August 1st-
#5 ACOUSTIC (5-1, BEST BET) is my play of the day going first off the claim for trainer Jason Servis under go to stable rider Irad Ortiz Jr. I know Servis has cooled off a bit since his white hot Belmont meet, but this one has to be a given a long look in here. According to Formulator the last five years Servis is an amazing 9 for 18 (50%, $3.32 ROI) in turf routes first off the claim off 31-60 days. Has not been seen since June 10th when breaking about 2-3 lengths slow and closing with a nice run to be 4th beaten 1 3/4 lengths. That was even more impressive as the early splits were pretty slow. The last two turf efforts put him right there and have a feeling this one is going to run huge in here.
SUGGESTED PLAYS: $30 win and place on #5 ACOUSTIC and a $3 exacta key box 5/2,4,6,7,9,11 (ONLY BETTING IF ON TURF).
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Sunday July 29th-
#6 NEW YORK’S FINEST (8-1) will be my top pick in here going out for turf sprint master Linda Rice. This one is an incredible 4 for 4 on the Saratoga lawn including rattling off three of those last meet. He is also an amazing 5 for 5 at the distance. Comes off a career top 87 Beyer going gate to wire at Monmouth on July 13th. Regular pilot Jose Lezcano gets back aboard today and according to Formulator the last five years Linda Rice is 7 for 25 (28%) in turf sprints top Beyer last out second off the layoff. Also, according to Formulator the last year Jose Lezcano is 7 for 15 (47%, $4.65 ROI) teaming up with Linda rice at the Spa. This stat improves to 4 for 6 (67%, $6.63 ROI) in turf sprints the last year at Saratoga.
SUGGESTED PLAYS: $20 win and place on #6 NEW YORK’S FINEST and a $3 exacta key box 6/1,2,5,10.
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–Saturday July 28th-
RACE 6- #4 UNCLE GIO (8-1, BEST BET) will be my top pick in here if they stay on the grass. This one has run six straight races that are all very good and now come into this fresh for trainer Michelle Nevin. Last time out had the 10 hole at Belmont. Was throwing his head a little and Johnny V. had a hard time handling him as he had to check off of heels and also was very wide throughout, but still managed to close ground to run 5th only beaten a length and a quarter. Comes into this with two good works on 7/13 and 7/20. According to Formulator the last five years Nevin is 3 for 16 (19%, $4.27 ROI) in turf routes off 31-60 days at Saratoga. #6 MOROCCO (15-1) and #9 PENALTY (4-1) both get very good Formulator angles being sent out by Bill Mott. First Morocco, the last five years Bill Mott is 4 for 13 (31%) in turf routes second off the layoff first time blinkers, he is 2 for 4 ($4.72 ROI) with this stat at Saratoga. #9 Penalty, according to Formulator the last five years Mott is 4 for 13 (31%, $5.94 ROI) in turf routes off 31-60 days in allowance races at Saratoga.
SUGGESTED PLAYS: $30 win and place on #4 UNCLE GIO and a $5 exacta key box 4/6,9,12 (TURF ONLY).
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Friday July 27th-
RACE 6- #4 BAREEQA (10-1) will be my top pick in here under Ricardo Santana Jr. for trainer Steve Asmussen who will get her for the first time off the trainer switch from Armando De La Cerda. She is 3 for 4 on the Saratoga lawn and has also run well at the distance. If you look back at her state bred races she has run some big races including a win at this condition last September. The last four have been against open company including the last two as the beaten favorite. The value will be much better today and should have some pace to close into today. According to Formulator the last five years Asmussen is 2 for 11 (18%) in turf routes off 61-180 days first after a trainer switch. #3 OUT OF TROUBLE (3-1) is another must use being sent out by the red hot Brad Cox barn. Goes third off the layoff and has run paired up numbers to finish 2nd in both starts. According to Formulator the last five years Brad Cox is 29 for 81 (36%) in turf routes third off the layoff and is 1 for 1 with this stat at Saratoga. Has the early speed and will try to take them as far as she can.
SUGGESTED PLAYS: $10 win and place on #4 BAREEQA and a $5 exacta box 3,4 as well as a $2 exacta key box 4/1,2,7.
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Thursday July 26th-
RACE 6- #3 QUICK QUICK QUICK (9-2) will be my top pick in here and my BEST BET of the day going out for trainer Ian Wilkes. Goes third off the layoff after running in two sprints, with the last race producing a field best 84 Beyer. According to Formulator the last five years Ian Wilkes is 6 for 17 (35%, $2.87 ROI) on dirt going sprint to route third off the layoff. Nice to see that this one has a win and a second on the Saratoga main track. Has never run on a wet track, but should benefit from the quick pace. Nice to see meet leading rider Javier Castellano get the mount. #4 ALBEROBELLO (2-1) has not run a bad race in her career and comes into this off a 2nd place finish on 5/31 going off the even money favorite. Working well off the two month freshening. According to Formulator the last five years Todd Pletcher is 4 for 8 (50%, $7.58 ROI) on dirt going sprint to route off 31-60 days at Saratoga.
SUGGESTED PLAYS: $20 win and place on #3 QUICK QUICK QUICK and a $5 exacta key box 3/2,4.
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Wednesday July 25th-
RACE 2- #5 TAYLER’S THE BOSS (5-1) will be my top pick in here bring sent out by trainer Steve Asmussen who has had a good start to the meet. Goes third off the layoff and also will drop from the allowance level to the 40k claiming level. Has some tactical speed which surely will be used by Ricardo Santana Jr. Has won at the distance which is always encouraging and according to Formulator the last five years Asmussen is 5 for 16 (31%, 75% ITM) in dirt sprint third off the layoff at Saratoga.
SUGGESTED PLAYS: $10 win and place on #5 TAYLER’S THE BOSS and a $3 exacta key box 5/1,4,6…EARLY PICK FOUR PLAY: 4,5,6/2,3/ALL/3,9,10.
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Sunday July 22nd-
RACE 5- #3 STEALTH (8-1) will be the play in here for me. I am not the biggest fan of Leparoux, but think this one deserves a long look. Broke from the rail and was extremely slow from the gate, breaking about 5 lengths slow. Did make up some good ground in that race to get beat about 8 lengths. Has come back to work well including the last two drills both bullets. Bred to love a wet track with Blame on the top and Cure the Blues on the bottom. According to Formulator the last five years trainer Ian Wilkes is 3 for 20 (15%, $4.45 ROI) on dirt going sprint to route in MSW races making their second start. Think this one will run much better in here.
SUGGESTED PLAY: $15 win and place on #3 STEALTH and a $3 exacta key box 3/1,2,5,6,8.
Stealth broke slow from the gate and then was wide on the backstretch pulling Julien Leparoux and ended up fading after that trip…
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Friday July 20th-Opening Day!
RACE 7- #3 CUMBRIA (4-1) is my best bet of the day. She is on my bet back list as the winner of the last came from off the pace, but this 4yo filly by Distorted Humor was used a little bit the first 1/4 mile of the race-she was about 6 or 7 wide around the first turn and pulled her way to show some speed despite the restraint of jockey Junior Alvarado who had a choke hold on her. She seemed very keen and probably exerted alot of energy so I am willing to toss that race. I think the rider switch to Manny Franco improves her chances as he is an excellent front end rider. Like the 3 furlong speed work on 7/17 coming into this. One quick note, she does carry 125 lbs which is 7 lbs more than some of her foes today. Alot to love and you can find me most likely yelling at the Clubhouse TV if you are around to witness it!….Cumbria opened up dead on the board and ran like it to finish 10th. Questionable ride by Manny Franco…
