RACE 2: Going to give #2 REVELATORY (9-2) a shot in here. Sire Munnings gets 15% 2yo FTS winners and 14% in turf sprints. The dam Causal has produced a foal that was a winner in Mrs. Astor who is 1 for 7, 118k made in turf routes. Steady work tab and I like the two 3 furlong works on 6/29 and 7/5 indicating this one should have some early zip and will need it breaking from the rail. According to Formulator the last five years trainer Todd Pletcher is 3 for 8 (38%) with 2yo in turf sprints making their first start at Saratoga. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Win bet on #2 REVELATORY and an exacta key box 2/3,4,7.
RACE 3: I do not want to overthink things here but there has to be a reason that Irad goes to #4 ICY REPLY (5-1) trained by Jimmy Ferraro who is 0 for 12 at the meet. Ortiz gets off a Dutrow horse that has much better numbers but has seconditis and that is #2 SA FORADADA (3-1). Icy Reply has had wide trips in each of the last three starts and is another that would appear to have seconditis but the fact that Irad goes and the value will be better, will give a shot with her on top. Ortiz/Ferraro are 1 for 1 together with a $4.60 ROI. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Win bet on #4 ICY REPLY and an exacta key box 4/2,3,6. Triple, 4/2,3,6/ALL.
RACE 7: #4 LOVE APPEALS (6-1, BEST BET) will be my top pick in this spot. She won first out at Gulfstream and then ran 4th in the Sanibel Island. That effort is better than it looks as she was in tight along the inside and really did not get going until about 100 yards from the wire to be in a blanket finish for 4th. Fired back with a win going 6 furlongs at Aqueduct, demolishing a N1X field by almost 5 lengths. Came back off a three month layoff last out to run 3rd beaten a neck. Broke slow from the gate and had to race from the back, had to steady and wait for room when making her run outside of the 1/4 pole and closed well. If she did not lug in a tough in the stretch might of won the race but had to settle for 3rd beaten a neck. This one is battle tested in four starts and gets a rider upgrade to the hot riding Manny Franco. According to Formulator the last five years trainer Christophe Clement is 5 for 13 (38%, $5.52) in turf sprints second off a 60-180 day layoff at Saratoga. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Win bet on #4 LOVE APPEALS and an exacta key box 4/5,8,10,9.
RACE 8: Not in love with this race but if I had to pick it would be #4 HAUL (3-1). He won the debut like he is special and what I liked the most about that race is the eventual 2nd place finisher Ridgewood Runner who was the pacesetter stepped away a touch at the 1/4 pole and Haul responded with his own run that was very powerful and the extra ground should only help this son of Army Mule.
RACE 9: Another race that I am not in love as there is no value offered unless you beat the big top two, #4 ANNAPOLIS (8-5) and #6 CASA CREED (7-5). Of the two I would prefer CASA CREED as he had first run on his main foe today last out winning the G3 Kelso. Was ahead on the gallop out as well.
