RACE 1- Going to settle with #3 SECRET LOVER (5-1) as my top pick. This one lost ALL chance in the debut when checked bad at the start. Made up a ton of ground to run 4th with the speeds running 1-2-3 all the way around. Trainer Antonio Sano has had a great meet winning at a 50% clip and like the fact that this one has experience to build off of. Sire Khozan is 13% overall with his 2yo’s. Like the 16 day wheel back. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Win bet on #3 SECRET LOVER and an exacta key box 3/2,6,7,1,4. EARLY PICK FIVE PLAY: 3,2/13,6,14,12,3/1,3,4,6,7/10,3/3,6 ($100).
RACE 4- I really like #10 CHAMPIONS DREAM (6-1) in this spot. Broke his maiden first out over this oval and now gets a trainer switch from Mark Casse to Danny Gargan. Drops out of 5 stakes tries and also cuts back to 6 furlongs today which should suit him just fine. Comes in fresh for this having not raced since March 11th and is working very well coming into this including a blowout on 8/19. According to Formulator the last five years Gargan is 4 for 12 (33%, $2.53 ROI) on dirt going route to sprint off a 60-180 day layoff. Would think we will get all of the 6-1 morning line. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Win bet on #10 CHAMPIONS DREAM and an exacta key box 10/3,7,1,8.
RACE 6- #3 ANTENNA (6-1) is my BEST BET of the day. This one raced very well in the debut and now ships in here from Monmouth. Broke slow that day and was being ridden but kept grinding to eventually take the lead in the stretch only to get nailed on the wire. Should get a ton of education out of that and gets Irad today. Interesting stat according to Formulator, the last five years trainer Todd Pletcher is only 3 for 34 (9%) with 2yo in dirt sprints making their second start at Saratoga. Not a great % but still really like the horse in this spot. Watch the board on the #9, JUST F Y I (9-2) as this looks like a live firster from the Mott barn. Working good enough and sire Justify gets 23% winners with his 2yo FTS. Junior gets off the Mott that has experience to go here. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Win bet on #3 ANTENNA and an exacta key box 3/9,2,6,10.
RACE 11- There does not appear to be alot of speed signed on here so that benefits the old war horse, #6 CHANNEL MAKER (7-2). Shocked the G2 Bowling Green last out at 15-1 and nice to see a win over the local strip. Is proven at 1 1/2 miles and you know where he will be with a clean break. According to Formulator the last five years trainer Bill Mott is 6 for 27 (22%) in turf routes win last out at Saratoga. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Win bet on #6 CHANNEL MAKER.
RACE 12 (TRAVERS 4-1,7-2)- While I think it will be difficult to beat #1 FORTE (7-5) if he brings his best, the value will certainly not be there and has to break from the rail, something he has never done before. Even if he breaks a touch slow, I still think he is better than these but from a value stand point have to look elsewhere and I am torn between #4 MAGE (4-1) and #7 SCOTLAND (12-1). There does not appear to be alot of early speed outside of Scotland and #5 National Treasure who ships in for Bob Baffert taking the blinkers off, so the advantage should go to Scotland who is definitely faster earlier. Comes in with a bullet, best of 69 on 8/20 and appears primed for this spot while taking a step up in class. This one looks like a typical Mott that keeps getting better and better. #4 Mage has done nothing wrong and should improve second off the two month layoff for trainer Gustavo Delgado. I love the way this one is working coming in with a 5 furlong drill followed by two 6 furlong drills. Looks plenty fit and nice to see the success at the distance. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Win bet on #4 MAGE and an exacta key box 4/1,2,5,7 (heavier with 1,7).
