RACE 2 (2-5-1)- #2 UNCLE MOONLIGHT (5-1) looks like LONE SPEED to me. Comes in fresh having not raced since June 15th but trainer Michelle Nevin is 25% off a 61-180 day layoff. Is proven at a mile and nice to see that he won at this condition two back with an 88 Beyer. Dangerous with the speed and Kendrick knows how to get one out of the gate. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Win bet on #2 UNCLE MOONLIGHT and an exacta key box 2/5,1.
RACE 4 (2-5-7-4)- #2 CAPE TRAFALGAR (4-1) has been a completely different animal horse since the addition of blinkers. Broke the maiden two back and then ran a very good 2nd to Everso Mischievous who looks like a good one, earning a career best 93 Beyer. Should be able to sit a perfect trip right off the speed and comes into this with a big work on 8/27, 9th best of 141 on the day. I like the slight cut back for this one today. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Win bet on #2 CAPE TRAFALGAR and an exacta key box 2/5,7,4,8,3.
RACE 6 (3-1-5-7)- #3 TOM COLLINS (5-1) needs turf and gets it today. The dam Party Now has produced Passing Out who wasn’t bad on turf (140k) and made me alot of money on 8/9/19. Produced another winner in Clubbing who broke the maiden over turf. Sire Frosted only gets 6% turf route winners but is 17% overall with his 2yo runners. Showed good speed in the debut which is rare for a Shug, so expect him to be forward which will be an advantage in here. According to Formulator the last five years, Shug is 5 for 25 (20%, $2.70 ROI) first time turf routes second career start. Interesting stat on the #10 AGATE ROAD (5-2), last five years Todd Pletcher is 0 for 15 (27% ITM) with 2yo going dirt to turf routes in their second start. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Win bet on #3 TOM COLLINS and an exacta key box 3/1,5,7,2,9.
RACE 7 (9-7-3-10, BEST BET)- #9 DIVE BOMBER (7-2) is my best bet of the day. Broke ok and was a length off the lead while crowded which forced him to check out of the speed battle, cost him a length or better and then came again to make a three wide rally outside of 1/4 pole. Dove to inside which cost him another at least 1/2 length and ran on to finish an educational 5th. Should improve with the experience and adds blinkers today which should help. According to Formulator the last five years trainer Brad Cox is 6 for 16 (38%) with 2yo in dirt sprints adding blinkers for the first time in their second start. Very solid work pattern including a bullet on 8/19. Omaha Beach has produced alot of precocious types thus far. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Win bet on #9 DIVE BOMBER and an exacta key box 9/7,3,10,4,1.
