RACE 1 SELECTIONS (5-6-2-3): No doubt that #6 SHAFTESBURY (3-1) will be tough to beat in this spot going out for Irad/Pletcher. Has experience and ran 2nd two back with a 79 Beyer going this same distance. Will probably be odds on, but think there is some sneaky value with #5 FORTIFIED (6-1) and I will put that one on top. This 200k son of American Pharoah is bred nicely with the dam Counterparty winning 3 of 7 starts for 134k with two of her wins coming at this mile distance. Her progeny are 11-0-5 in turf routes. Some good works and trainer Cherie DeVaux has had a good meet. The one negative according to Formulator the last five years she is 0 for 11 with 3yo in turf routes with FTS. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Win/Place bet on #5 FORTIFIED and an exacta key box 5/6,2,3,10. ..PICK FIVE PLAY: 5,6,2/7/7,4,1/6,2,5/7,6,1,3.
RACE 2 SELECTIONS (7-5-10-1): #7 AYCAPOTE (5-1) is one of my better bets of the day and is LONE SPEED in this race. Another major reason is we have Peter Walder first off the claim and according to Formulator the last five years he is 10 for 33 (30%, $3.35 ROI) in dirt routes first off the claim. Walder is 23% at the meet and should be able to improve a horse off of Amador Sanchez. Two solid works since the last race including a blowout on 3/20. Alot to like in this spot. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Win/Place bet on #7 AYCAPOTE and an exacta key box 7/5,10,1,11.
RACE 3 SELECTIONS (7-4-1-5): #7 I GET IT (9-2) lost all chance last out when getting severely pinched and could of esily packed it in, but came again to be a very good 4th against much better in Con Lima and Spanish Loveaffair. Prior to that race held very good form on turf winning her last 4 of 5, with the only loss in that span to Con Lima. Two solid works since the last with a blowout on 3/22. Positive rider switch from Miguel Vasquez to Jose Ortiz. Cuts back to a mile where she is 3 for 5. All systems go with a cleaner trip. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Win bet on #7 I GET IT and an exacta key box 7/4,1,5,8.
RACE 4 SELECTIONS (6-2-5-3): #6 SWEET MELANIA (4-1) comes into this off an October 10th layoff when finishing a no-factor 7th in the G1 QEII at Keeneland. Has a ton of back class and if she can produce that back form she will be extremely tough in this spot. She should find herself alone on the lead as the race looks like LONE SPEED. Very solid work tab for Todd Pletcher who has enjoyed a great winning at a 25% clip and tends to show up with an arsenal on these big days. According to Formulator the last five years he is 5 for 31 (16%) in turf routes off 61-180 days in non-graded stakes. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Win bet on #6 SWEET MELANIA and an exacta key box 6/2,5,3.
RACE 5 SELECTIONS (7-6-1-3): Trying to get the natural Jose Ortiz Pick 3 home as I have #7 BASIN (5-2) on top. I was between the 6 and 7 for top honors, but ultimately went with the back class of Basin. This one was last seen at Saratoga in August finishing 2nd to Yaupon, who is quite good. Prior to that was routing against the likes of Art Collector, Swiss Skydiver, Charlatan and Nadal. Did win his only start at 7 furlongs, taking the G1 Hopeful by over 6 lengths. Evenly spaced work tab for this with the last three being at 5 furlongs. According to Formulator the last five years Pletcher is 3 for 8 in dirt sprints off more than 180 day layoff in non-graded stakes. #6 LETMENO (6-1) probably needed the last race when finishing 4th at Tampa in the G3 Challenger. That was off a 4 month layoff and has some back races that make him competitive in this spot. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Exacta key box 7/6,1,3.
RACE 6 SELECTIONS (4-8-3-5): The thing that stood out to me about this race is that there is a ton of early speed and for that reason I think that #4 EVER DANGEROUS (7-2) will get the perfect set up just off the expected speed duel. Was a good 2nd last out coming off a 3+ month layoff and should be able to improve off of that in here for trainer George Weaver. According to Formulator the last five years Weaver is 5 for 19 (26%, $10.56 ROI) in turf routes second off the 60-180 day layoff coming off a top Beyer. Very similar layoff pattern for this one as he won two back at 74-1 which helped inflate that previous ROI. #8 SEISMIC WAVE (3-1) has a ton of back class and will make his first start for trainer Chad Brown coming off an October 18th layoff. According to Formulator the last five years Brown is 9 for 41 (22%) in turf routes off a 61-180 day layoff first after the trainer switch. Likes the Gulfstream turf, this is his best distance and gets the biggest equipment change being a first time gelding. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Win bet on #4 EVER DANGEROUS and an exacta key box 4/8,3,5.
RACE 7 SELECTIONS (10-3-9-12,5): #10 CADENCIA (7-2) has the most consistent turf form in here and is the experience of the race under Irad Ortiz Jr. for that man again, trainer Todd Pletcher. The last two starts have resulted in 2nd place finishes and the winner of the last race. Alwayz Late came back to win an N1X on 3/10 with a 74 Beyer. Three solid works since the last and this one looks tough in here. #3 COMMUNITY ADJUSTED (8-1) was hurt by the slow fractions in the debut back in August with the top three finishers running 1,2,3 all the way around. The winner that day, Caldee, came back to run 2nd in the G2 Ms. Grillo and then was 4th in the Chelsey Flower. Adds lasix today, but will have to deal with that layoff. According to Formulator the last five years trainer Christophe Clement is 3 for 11 (27%, $2.99 ROI) in turf routes first time lasix off more than 180 days in MSW races. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Win bet on #10 CADENCIA and an exacta key box 10/3,9,12,5,1.
RACE 8 SELECTIONS (2-1-6-4): Probably the race that I have the last amount of confidence, but would give a shot with #2 EYE OF A JEDI (7-2) for owner/trainer Steve Budhoo. This one was a no-factor 4th last out, but think that he simply bounced off of 5 straight 90+ Beyers and was also coming off a career best 99 Beyer when running 2nd beaten a neck by Performer in the G3 Fred Hooper. Javier Castellano has ridden well at the meet since coming back and nice to see that this one had a blowout drill on 3/20, best of 16 on the day. Think this one will run a much improved race. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Win bet on #2 EYE OF A JEDI and an exacta key box 2/1,6,4.
RACE 9 SELECTIONS (4-7-10-9,3): I sound like a broken record, but another Todd Pletcher runner that I like today and that is #4 SUMMER TO REMEMBER (4-1) who is a bet back for me. He left hard last out breaking from the rail, but Luis Saez decided to take back and sit the pocket. Nobody was beating the winner Colonel Liam who has been very good since switching to turf and that one came over the top for the win while Summer to Remember sat the pocket, angled out and fought gamely to almost run 2nd while in tight in between. Thought that was a very good effort against better and will take the drop today coming in fresh, having not been seen since that race on 12/26. Broke his maiden on this turf and at the distance. Steady set of drills and Irad takes over today. According to Formulator the last five years Pletcher is 22 for 85 (26%) in turf routes off 61-180 days at Gulfstream. Should sit a cozy trip right off the early pace. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Win bet on #4 SUMMER TO REMEMBER and an exacta key box 4/7,10,9,3,5...RAINBOW SIX PLAY: 4,7/7,1/5,8,6,1,2/2,6,1/9,7/10,7,5,9,2.
RACE 10 SELECTIONS (7-1-3-8, BEST BET): Really like #7 MOON OVER MIAMI (5-1) in this spot for trainer Bill Mott. He ran superb last out to be a closing 3rd and he was the only one that made up any ground on the leaders closing into slow fractions. Think he will definitely improve off of that start in his 2nd start of his 4yo campaign and with the lack of early speed he has shown the ability to sit just off in the past. According to Formulator the last five years Bill Mott is 10 for 67 (15%) in turf routes top Beyer last out second off the 61-180 day layoff. Really think this one runs well off the stellar performance last out. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Win/Place bet on #7 MOON OVER MIAMI and an exacta key box 7/1,3,8,2.
RACE 11 SELECTIONS (5-8-6-1,2): Not overly confident in this spot, but think that #5 KING OF DREAMS (9-2) is playable here. He broke his maiden two back at today’s distance with a 78 Beyer showing good speed while adding lasix for the first time. Was a non-factor last out in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby on dirt, but you can cross a line through that race. There are some with tactical speed in this spot and with that being said expect a good gate rider in Jaramillo to gun towards the lead and try to take them as far as he can. NO SUGGESTED PLAYS THIS RACE.
RACE 12 SELECTIONS (2-1-6-3): This is my upset special of the day as I think #2 BOW WOW GIRL (8-1) is going to outrun her odds and has a great chance to upset the field. Yes, she just broke her maiden and that is a tall task to ask first time facing winners to win a G2, but trainer Dale Romans does very well with this move. According to Formulator the last five years he is 6 for 22 (27%, $3.84 ROI) in dirt routes maiden win last out in graded stakes. Two of those wins came in this race with Go Maggie Go in 2016 and Coach Rocks in 2018. There is not a ton of early speed in here so expect Lanerie to sit just off Irad and my second choice Con Lima. The maiden win seemed like a perfect prep for this race. #1 CON LIMA (3-1) is in super sharp form right now and has the best early speed breaking from the rail. Keep in mind though that according to Formulator the last five years trainer Todd Pletcher is 0 for 16 (13% ITM) going turf to dirt routes in graded stakes. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Win/Place bet on #2 BOW WOW GIRL and an exacta key box 2/1,6,3.
RACE 13 SELECTIONS (9-7-10-5): I was really trying to beat the morning line favorite of #9 ALWAYS SHOPPING (8-5), but could not find anyone to do so, so I am a chalk eating rat this race. This one is coming off two very impressive wins both by 3 lengths. Last out ran a career best 94 Beyer and I like the fact that trainer Todd Pletcher gave this one some time off since January 23rd. Loves the Gulfstream turf and expect another big run with the perfect running style for this race sitting just off the lead. According to Formulator the last five years Todd Pletcher is 12 for 59 (20%) in turf routes top Beyer last out off 61-180 days. NO SUGGESTED PLAYS THIS RACE.
RACE 14 SELECTIONS (10-7-5-9,2): The race we have all been waiting for, the G1 Florida Derby. The biggest thing that stood out to me is, why is Bob Baffert running #10 SPIELBERG (4-1) in Florida? Very rarely does he ship into Gulfstream, but I think that he is going to be very tough in this spot. Last out ran a good 2nd, losing to as of now the probable Kentucky Derby favorite in Essential Quality. The last two races where on less than fast tracks and he will get fast today. Two solid works coming into this with a blowout on 3/21, 2nd best of 84 on the day. Breaks from the outside and has the perfect running style to sit just off. Baffert magic again? Take nothing away from the morning line favorite #7 GREATEST HONOUR (6-5) who has rattled off three straight wins and has looked impressive in all of them. The questions I have for today are, does he have enough pace to set up his closing kick? And, will he regress off the last race? Some questions have to be answered and at 6-5 willing to take a shot to beat him. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Win bet on #10 SPIELBERG.
