RACE 2 SELECTIONS (9-10-6-1,3): This race happens to have my BEST BET of the day and that is #9 HAPPY BOY ROCKET (4-1). Trainer Bill Mott rarely has them cranked at first asking and he always does better with a race under his belt. According to Formulator the last five years Mott is 8 for 39 (21%) on dirt going sprint to route in his second start in MSW races. This stat improves to 3 for 5 ($5.68 ROI) with first time lasix and 2 for 3 at Gulfstream. Nobody was beating the top two in the debut and the winner was a very nice looking Todd Pletcher Gun Runner first time starter going off 6-5. Nice to see that this one went for 490k and Runhappy only stands for 12.5k (39 times the stud fee). Lost all chance at the start when breaking awkward and throwing his head losing several lengths while the winner broke perfect. Did not give up and actually settled down the backstretch, was 3-4 wide every step of the way around the turn and just kept grinding away without much encouragement from Junior. Was a touch green in the stretch and finished up good enough to be 3rd. Should really improve off of that start and looking to maybe catch the 4-1 morning line with a couple of Pletcher runners in here. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Win bet on #9 HAPPY BOY ROCKET and an exacta key box 9/10,6,1,3,7…SUGGESTED PICK FOUR PLAY: 9,10,6,1/1,11,3,8,10/11,10,5,9/6,4,9 ($120)
RACE 3 SELECTIONS (1-11-3-8,10): Will give a shot to #1 TRAFFIC SONG (4-1) who has early speed and inside position. I like Jose Ortiz on a turf speed horse and this one did all the dirty work last out to just miss at this condition at 18-1. The third place finisher came back to win on 12/29 at this condition with a 79 Beyer. Came off a two month layoff so eligible to improve. According to Formulator the last five years trainer Jimmy Toner is 5 for 27 (19%, $2.57 ROI) in turf routes second off the 60-180 day layoff. Four solid works coming in, three of which were on turf. Has won at this distance and should run well here. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Win bet on #1 TRAFFIC SONG and an exacta key box 1/11,3,8,10.
RACE 4 SELECTIONS (11-10-5-9,6): I love these maiden races in the winter! I have heard that both Pletcher first time starters can run from multiple people…you can call me Captain Obvious for telling you about a Pletcher first time starter at Gulfstream…I like #11 POSITIVE REVIEW (9-2) for two main reasons, he has experience and gets a huge rider upgrade. He took massive amount of money in both starts and has disappointed but adds lasix today (30% move for Saffie) and also adds blinkers (27% move) which could make all the difference. Faced a good looking one in the debut named Dean’s List, a firster sent out from Pletcher by Speightstown. Evenly spaced solid work tab since the last start and I would think this one will offer some decent value with the Pletcher runners taking money. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Win bet on #11 POSITIVE REVIEW and an exacta key box 11/10,5,9,6,12.
RACE 5 SELECTIONS (6-4-9-1, PASS RACE FOR ME)
RACE 7 SELECTIONS (6-10-9-1,11): Tough race here for me as the morning line favorite, #10 ABAAN (2-1) could be very tough with all that early speed but steps up against graded company for the first time and at a likely short price, let’s try to beat this one. I will settle with #6 BAMA BREEZE (12-1) coming in fresh for trainer Rusty Arnold. This one has not been seen since October 22nd when finishing 4th in the G3 Sycamore at Keeneland. Prior to that race won a quality race at Kentucky Downs. If you look in this one’s past running lines you will see a ton of back class in his 3yo campaign against much tougher fields. First start as a newly turned 5yo and a decent work tab coming into this could produce a very juicy payout for us. Wide open underneath to complete verticals. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Win/Place bet on #6 BAMA BREEZE and an exacta key box 6/10,9,1,11,12,8.
RACE 8 SUGGESTED LATE PICK FIVE PLAY: 5,8/5,11,1/1,8/8,6,1,9,12/4,1,2 ($90)
RACE 9 SELECTIONS (5-11-1-7): I am 100% against #4 REGAL GLORY (2-1) in this spot and hoping we can beat her. I like a price on top and that is #5 GIFT LIST (15-1). Always thought this one has a world of potential as her only three starts in the U.S. have been terrific. First time she came off a 5.5 month layoff to run a good 2nd to Jouster and then followed that up with a blowout win by 4+ lengths in the G2 Edgewood. Her last start was in June in the G3 Wonder Again and she threw her head and was rank around the first turn causing her to be in tight and having to steady. She then settled and ran a good race closing along the inside while shifting out mid-stretch to run 3rd against a very good field that included Con Lima, Plum Ali, Jouster, Fluffy Socks and Technical Analysis. Has not been seen since that start but Lynch has proven successful with her off a layoff and according to Formulator the last five years he is 5 for 40 (13%) in turf routes off more than 180 days. Solid work tab coming in and Lynch has had a good Gulfstream meet thus far. #11 BIPARTISANSHIP (20-1) won the Tropical Park Oaks last out (winning impressively), a perfect prep for this and trainer Graham Motion does well with these types. According to Formulator the last five years, Motion is 5 for 17 (29%, $2.63 ROI) in turf routes top Beyer last out in graded stakes at Gulfstream Park. Both top choices should get a strong pace to close into. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Win/Place #5 GIFT LIST and an exacta key box 5/11,1,7.
RACE 10 SELECTIONS (1-8-6-5, PASS RACE FOR ME)
RACE 11 SELECTIONS (8-6-1-9,12): #8 SACRED LIFE (6-1) will be my top pick in here going out for trainer Chad Brown coming in fresh for this having not raced for 2 months. I think he will get the perfect set up in this race with alot of speed signed on. Two starts back won at this distance taking the G3 Knickerbocker at 5-1 beating Field Pass who revenged the loss last out in the G2 Seabiscuit, beating Sacred Life at 4-5. Has not raced since then but was in very good form. Nice to see six evenly spaced drills on tap and according to Formulator the last five years Brown is 6 for 21 (29%) in turf routes off a 61-180 day layoff in graded stakes at Gulfstream Park. Expect a good race from this one off the bench. Another race where I think it is wide open underneath to complete verticals. SUGGESTED PLAYS: Win bet on #8 SACRED LIFE and an exacta key box 8/6,1,9,12,7,10.
RACE 12 SELECTIONS (4-1-2-9, PASS RACE FOR ME)
