RACE 2 SELECTIONS: 11-3-1-12 #11 BRENDA’S FEVER
will be my top pick in here. This one seems to be saddled with outside posts since coming back from the two month freshening and now today draws the 11 hole. Has run well in both of those starts and closed into slow fractions in both starts. There does not appear to be a ton of speed in here, but I think this one will run well after posting two solid works on 2/1 and 2/10. Steve Margolis has had a great meet and him and Shaun Bridgmohan are 3 for 4 teaming up the last year with an amazing $7.45 ROI. Should get all of the 6-1 morning line.Suggested Plays: $15 to win on #11 BRENDA’S FEVER and a $3 exacta key box 11/1,3,4,12….PICK FOUR PLAY: 1,3,4,11,12/3,6,7/2,5,6/1,5.
RACE 3 SELECTIONS: 6-7-3-1
RACE 4 SELECTIONS: 6-2-5-11 I really like #6 COMMEND in this spot. Some of his best races have come at the 5.5 furlong distance and he comes in fresh having not raced since October 27th after throwing in two clunkers. I think Bill Mott did the right thing with him freshening him up and he has showed maintenance type drills coming back. According to Formulator the last five years Bill Mott is 12 for 50 (24%, $2.25 ROI) in turf sprints off a 61-180 day layoff. Will have some pace to close into today and look for him to be flying late. Interesting stat on #2 PARTLY MOCHA-the last five years Mike Maker is 4 for 11 (36%, $2.74 ROI) in turf sprints first off the claim second off the layoff. You get a switch to Castellano and this one is 26-7-7-4 at today’s distance. 15-1 morning line and should be considered in all exotics. #5 HOLDING GOLD is the 8-5 morning line favorite but is winless in his last five starts, but has faced much better. Has been working well, but I do not trust the layoff. Could certainly win, but prefer others on top.
Suggested Plays: $30 to win on #6 COMMEND and a $5 exacta key box 6/2,5,11.
RACE 5 SELECTIONS: 5-1-3-4 I really do not like this race to play individually, but would settle with #5 THE PLAYER on top. I have always been a fan of this horse and he will now get blinkers today for the first time, a 33% move for trainer Buff Bradley. He is working lights out. Speed and fade last two, but note that he was 4-5 against my second choice #1 CEDARTOWN in the 75K Louisiana last out. #1 CEDARTOWN is 4 for 5 at today’s distance and is coming off an emphatic win in that last start earning a 100 Beyer which is why he is the 8-5 morning line. Good work on 2/3, but note that the last five years trainer Michael Stidham is only 5 for 50 (10%) in dirt routes top Beyer last out, with one of those wins coming with this horse two back. #3 SCUBA has had a good resume and ran second to the morning line favorite last out in that aforementioned race. Has done well at the distance, but I think that this one prefers to go longer. Could certainly be in the mix in this spot.
RACE 6 SELECTIONS: 10-3-6-4 I think #10 HALLIE BELLE has a big shot to upset this field at a big price. She is coming into this off three straight wins and also earned a career best 86 Beyer last out on 12/30. Has not been seen since that start, but has come back to work very strong. I like her running style of sitting just off the early pace and pouncing on the leaders and she will get a good pace in here. She has moved right up the ranks-three back she broke her maiden at Keeneland, then won a N1X and then conquered a 74K minor stake by a neck. Two of those starts came on the Fairgrounds turf. She will face some more accomplished runners in here, but I think she can answer the test for trainer Michael Stidham in the Godolphin colors.
Suggested Plays: $20 to win on #10 HALLIE BELLE and a $3 exacta key box 10/1,3,4,5,6.
RACE 7 SELECTIONS: 7-8-4-3 (BEST BET) #7 PATRONA MARGARITA is my bet of the day. I love her in this spot because there is so much speed signed on here and she will be coming like a freight train in the long Fairgrounds stretch. If you throw out her race over a sloppy track she is only a neck away from being perfect in her three other starts. She won very powerfully last out in the G2 Pocahontas at Churchill after breaking from the 11 hole at 23-1. That start was also her first time routing and was at today’s distance. She has not been seen since that start. According to Formulator the last five years Bret Calhoun is 7 for 15 (47%, $3.17 ROI) in dirt routes top Beyer last out off a 61-180 day layoff. I also love the fact that Calhoun has given her some conditioning drills with two of the works being at 6 furlongs. I think she is ready to fire another huge performance in here! #8 MONOMOY GIRL was 3 for 3 until her neck loss in the G2 Golden Rod. She will go straight to the lead and try to take them as far as she can. She has been working well off the freshening, but at 8-5 I will try to beat her. #4 WONDER GADOT has run very well in her last two starts and will be another that will be close to the expected hot pace. Two strong works in February and nice to see Johnny V. make the trip for her.
Suggested Plays: $30 to win on #7 PATRONA MARGARITA and a $5 exacta key box 7/3,4,8 and a $2 exacta box 5,7.
RACE 8 SELECTIONS: 6-8-12-3 #6 MR. MISUNDERSTOOD has won his last five starts and nice to see that trainer Brad Cox has given this one some time off. He is 8 for 8 on turf and you do not see that often, as well as 3 for 3 on the Fairgrounds turf. According to Formulator the last five years Cox is 10 for 22 (45%, 77% ITM) in turf routes top Beyer last out off 31-60 days at Fairgrounds. Will likely go off the favorite, but should prove tough once again. #8 SYNCHRONY won his lone start over the Fairgrounds turf and has run three 95+ Beyers his last three starts. You have to respect everything that Joe Bravo is on especially for Mike Stidham as they are 37% teaming up together the last year. Working well for the return as he has not been seen since May. According to Formulator the last five years Stidham is 6 for 31 (19%) in turf routes off more than 180 days. #12 CATCHO EN DIE has only had one start in the U.S. and that was a second place finish to March on 12/29. He was loaded that day and had to wait in the stretch and that allowed March to roll on by on the outside. Previous to that start he was 3 for 3 in Argentina. Two slow bullet drills including a 7 furlong move on 2/3. According to Formulator the last five years Bill Mott is 2 for 4 (100% ITM) in turf routes off 31-60 days at Fairgrounds.
Suggested Plays: $15 to win on #6 MR. MISUNDERSTOOD and a $5 exacta key box 6/3,5,8,12.
RACE 9 SELECTIONS: 1-5-9-2 It could very well be a two horse race in the G2 Risen Star between #5 INSTILLED REGARD and #9 PRINCIPE GUILHERME, but I am going to try a fresh face and that is #1 HIGH NORTH for trainer Brad Cox. He took some money in his debut at Saratoga and ended up facing Hazit and Good Magic. Next time out faced Avery Island, Biblical-all of which have been at least G2 placed with Good Magic winning the G1 BC Juvenile. Came back in his third start at Keeneland, had the 12 hole and battled all the way to break his maiden by a nose. In his last start in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, he broke 12th and closed well to be 4th after being bothered and steadied into the first turn. Note that was his first start on lasix. Has run his best races at a 1 1/16 and has been working very well coming back. I will take 15-1 morning line and try to upset the apple card. #5 INSTILLED REGARD has run lights out in his last two against graded stakes company including a powerful win in the G3 Lecomte. Working well and could certainly win back in this spot. #9 PRINCIPE GUILHERME dominated his first two starts, then had the 10 hole in the G3 Lecomte. In my opinion he did not look comfortable in that race and ended up getting bumped at the 1/2. Went off 6-5 and ended up running 2nd behind Instilled Regard who had first run and was just overall better that day. Will certainly be a factor and should show up with his A game today.
Suggested Plays: $20 to win on #1 HIGH NORTH and a $5 exacta key box 1/2,5,9.
RACE 10 SELECTIONS: 8-1-10-6 Interesting stat on #8 SPECIAL FORCES. According to Formulator the last five years trainer Mark Casse is 12 for 43 (28%, $3.37 ROI) on turf going sprint to route off 31-60 days in MSW races. First start on turf wasn’t bad after breaking through the gate and having the 12 hole-broke 11th and finished 8th only getting beat 4 lengths. 12-1 morning line works for me.
Suggested Plays: $15 to win on #8 SPECIAL FORCES and a $3 exacta key box 8/1,6,7,10.
RACE 11 SELECTIONS: 3-5-2-1
RACE 12 SELECTIONS: 6-8-5-10…(COULD BE THE WORST RACE EVER ASSEMBLED!)
